Twins Closers

Last Spring the news that Joe Nathan would need Tommy John surgery brought up big questions for who would fill the perennial all star’s void. Jon Rauch was not the answer, so the Twins made a move in a mid-season trade for Matt Capps. He filled the role nicely, and brought stability to the back half of the bullpen.

But with Nathan recovering and throwing very well in Fort Myers this Spring. So who should close games for the Twins this season? You can make a good argument for either. The Twins spent more than $7 Million to keep him around for this year, and so they must not be certain Nathan will quickly return to his all star form just 12 months after ligament replacement surgery. Nathan is scheuled to make just over $11 Million this season and the Twins have a $12.5 Million option for next season with a $2 Million buy out. Both are making a lot of money this year and neither is locked in in the long term.

When Fransico Liriano had the same surgery, it took him 2 full seasons to recover the confidence and arm strength to pitch with any consistency. Will Nathan be any different? The difference is as a closer, you don’t need to throw 100 pitches in an outing. Nathan will get by throwing far fewer pitches. Most often, he only needs 3 outs which requires different mentality and different mechanics. He’ll probably return to form easier than a starting pitcher with the same surgery. My concern is Nathan’s ability to finish the season. In 2009, the Twins lost all 3 games in the ALDS to the Yankees, and Nathan was certainly not pitching at full strength. Would it be worth it to make him the closer in April to sacrifice having him in October?

So where does this leave us? The Twins are paying closer money to both Capps and Nathan. Capps is younger, but Nathan’s experience is an asset. I think the Twins need to think beyond this year, since they likely don’t have the starting pitching to make a serious run at a world championship. If either Nathan or Capps starts the season well, find a team in need of a closer and make a trade to fill the real problem, starting pitching. Both Capps and Nathan will get the job done this year, but having two great closers on a team that has an average starting pitching isn’t going to help you. It’s likely the Twins will move one of them during this season rather than letting Capps go to free agency or buying out Nathan’s option in 2012.